digital currencies and the future of the monetary system Knowledge graph

CICC: The non-agricultural data in November supported the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. The CICC research report pointed out that after being seriously hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the United States rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. On the whole, the labor market is still in a state of "the momentum of employment growth is weakening, but the job market itself is not weak", which will provide reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. However, we also predict that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, because as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers will become more cautious. One prediction risk is the impact of Trump's immigration policy on the labor market. At present, we tend to have a moderate impact, but we also need to pay close attention to the possibility of extreme situations. Based on non-agricultural data, we believe that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again this month.List of A-share restricted shares lifted: The restricted shares with a market value of 3.961 billion yuan were lifted today. On Tuesday (December 10th), the restricted shares of six companies were lifted, with a total lifting amount of 185 million shares. According to the latest closing price, the total lifting market value was 3.961 billion yuan. Judging from the amount of lifting the ban, one company lifted more than 10 million shares. Dongxin, Guiyan Platinum and Hangzhou Jiebai were among the top companies, with 166 million shares, 6,131,900 shares and 6,033,300 shares respectively. Judging from the market value of lifting the ban, the number of shares lifted by a company exceeds 100 million yuan. Dongxin Co., Ltd., Guiyan Platinum Industry and Yineng Power are among the top companies in terms of market value, with market values of 3.717 billion yuan, 86.767 million yuan and 81.6371 million yuan respectively. Judging from the proportion of shares released from the ban to the total share capital, the proportion of one company released from the ban exceeded 10%. Dongxin, Yineng Power and Baolijie are among the top companies, with the lifting rates of 37.47%, 5.75% and 1.78% respectively.The initial strength of inter-bank spot bonds was obvious. The yield of active bonds of 7-year and 10-year treasury bonds dropped by 3.5bp. The yield of active bonds of 7-year and 10-year treasury bonds fell by 3.5bp, the yield of 7-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 18" reported 1.725%, and the yield of 10-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 11" hit 1.87%, all hitting record lows. The yield of 30-year "24 Special Treasury Bond 06" dropped by 3.1bp to 2.079%, the lowest since the end of February 2005.

The snow removal operation of several expressways in Gansu Province continued due to the temporary control of snowfall. It was learned from the traffic police department of Gansu Province that due to the large-scale snowfall and road icing, as of 7: 30 on the 10th, several expressways in Gansu Province were temporarily controlled. The highway maintenance department is continuously carrying out ice and snow removal operations.Five A-shares registered today, among which Longyan Group, Juyi Technology and China CITIC Bank have the strongest dividends. According to the statistics of the equity distribution plan of listed companies, five A-shares registered today. Among them, 5 shares are intended to pay dividends. In terms of dividends, date of record, where 5 stocks pay dividends, is December 10th. Longbai Group, Juyi Technology and China CITIC Bank have the strongest dividends, with dividends of 3 yuan, 2.2 yuan and 1.83 yuan for every 10 shares. In addition, there are 7 shares that have made dividend plans, among which Radio and Television Metrology, Cube Pharmaceutical and Hefei Hi-Tech have the strongest dividend plans, and every 10 shares will be distributed to 2.5 yuan, 2 yuan and 1 yuan respectively.Guotai Junan: Policy optimization or help improve the long-term return of the expressway industry. Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that location advantage determines the return of road production, and policy optimization or help improve the long-term return of the expressway industry. 1) Expressway is the preferred way to deliver high dividends. In the past three years, the A-share market favored high dividends, and the excess returns of expressways were remarkable. The dividend yield depends on the dividend rate and PE valuation level. Expressway is an infrastructure asset with heavy assets and stable returns, with rigid demand and stable cash flow, and the high dividend policy continues, which is in line with market preferences. 2) Resilience of industry operation: In 2023, the repressive demand was released and the performance increased. In the first half of 2024, the industry was under pressure due to the increase of rain and snow and free days. In the second half of 2024, or due to economic impact, the traffic volume and profit of some high-speed vehicles decreased slightly, the traffic demand remained resilient and the cash flow remained stable. 3) The pressure of reinvestment may be expected to improve the policy. Expressway toll prices have been stable for a long time, while the cost of newly built or renovated units has risen sharply, and there is widespread reinvestment pressure in the industry. In the future, the industry is expected to optimize policies, or improve the high-speed return of new construction or expansion to a reasonable level by extending the charging period. 4) Expressway REITs: generally, they are stock road products with excellent location and stable returns. In 2023, the system was under pressure, and in 2024, the expressway REITs with better profit than the industry were among the top gainers. The performance of underlying assets in the future will still be the key to dominate the performance of REITs.

In October, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, and the trend of steady improvement continued to consolidate. The General Administration of Market Supervision announced today (10th) that in October, 2024, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, up 0.47 points from September, and the steady improvement of corporate credit level continued to consolidate.Wuhan Economic Development Zone signed a cooperation agreement with Fuao Co., Ltd., and on December 9, Wuhan Economic Development Zone signed a cooperation agreement with Fuao Auto Parts Co., Ltd. Fuao shares are laid out in Wuhan for the first time, and an automobile thermal management system project will be built in Wuhan Economic Development Zone to help transform and upgrade Wuhan auto parts industry. It is reported that Fuao's automobile thermal management system project is located in Junshan New City, mainly producing automobile air conditioning boxes and other products. The project will start in April next year and reach production in 2026. At present, Fuao Co., Ltd. has established a Wuhan branch in Wuhan Economic Development Zone. In the future, the two sides will actively promote the landing of Fuao Huazhong Base, and introduce more business sectors such as chassis system, thermal management system and new energy products to provide near-ground support for complete vehicle enterprises in Wuhan Economic Development Zone such as Lantu Automobile. (Hubei Daily)CITIC Securities' Outlook for OpenAI Release: The commercialization of AI will accelerate again. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, according to its official website, OpenAI announced that it will announce new products and functions for 12 consecutive working days from December 5th. At present, the official version of o1, ChatGPT Pro, enhanced fine-tuning and other functions have been released. We expect that the main directions of subsequent release will include multimodal, Agent and platform tools, AI applications, etc. The main products will include the foresight of important products such as Sora and Operator. At present, the rapid prosperity of model ecology, considering the upgrading of model capabilities and the lowering of industrialization threshold, combined with the application landing forms such as Agent, we expect that the landing of AI applications will continue to accelerate in 2025.